DRAFT in progress

Poll: Help name the coming phenomena that will parallel Peak Oil, where sharing will start to increase again.

Peak Oil And Peak Sharing

Are there any positive trends to mirror peak-oil?

We in the environmental-activist demographic tend to see things stark and negative. Saying this doesn't mean we're not often right, but it is an exercise in being watchful for the tribe, being the pessimist who says "don't run off the cliff without looking" to the more care-free members of society.

And we've come to expect bad surprises: one day I knew that oil would slowly run out in the distant future, the next day I'd learned about Peak Oil, that the shift was going to be short, sharp and brutal to our economy and probably society.

We don't tend to look for, or believe in, positive surprises. Peak oil, global warming, ozone depletion, hormone disruptors: they're all nasty surprises we one day learn about, on top of a backdrop of habitat and species destruction and old-fashioned pollution. It's easy to be pessimistic.

The social world is different. Sure, sometimes we break out into wars and disasters. But there are also positive surprises: things sometimes get better. Sometimes it's a long process, slow gains in education and prosperity and decency. Sometimes there are key breaks for the better: the end of slavery in the US, Apartheid in South Africa, the Soviet Union. Cuba once made society-transforming strides in literacy in just one year.

Lost among pessimism: the decade could bring "peak sharing."

Sharing has been on the decline for more generations than we can imagine. Trust networks have broken down.

I'm almost ready to be an optimist and say that the long decline in sharing will have a reverse-peak, will bottom-out and turn around. The combination of greener attitudes and much easier sharing through technology looks just as clear as Peak Oil.

EBay isn't a bad example. It's powered by capitalism, but let's you buy from a random stranger with as much assurance as from a corporate store.

Carsharing and ridesharing stand out as sharing techniquest within major parts of the environmentally destructive economy growing, or ready to grow, exponentially.

How many greens does it take to change a lightbulb?

People in middle-America look at the economy today and see super-entrepreneurs like Bill Gates. Men heavily ensconced within the capitalist and competitive world view. Environmentalists and social progressives, during the short time I've been aware and watching personally, have played their traditional role as gadflies. Ask someone in Ohio whether they trust Bill Gates or some environmental group to build them a high tech carpool system, and they'll go with Gates (even if their Windows machine is drowning in viruses).

As oil runs out, as growing elements in society drift more towards high-tech sharing, Microsoft will build a carpool system, if no one gets there first.

I think it is pivotally important for progressives to get our hands dirty. After a while, more lectures and scolding and more lectures and scolding stop changing minds: people get it that things are a mess. We need to show that we can create. The "Sharing Industry," ripping down the GNP while greatly increasing satisfaction and suffiency, needs to be the work of progressives if we are to gain enough trust to win elections. I would have no blame for Microsoft if they built the country's rideshare system, but it would be sad if we don't beat them to it. If greens can solve the traffic problem - and I believe it's quite possible - people will trust us with the larger economy and environmentalist will start winning elections.